...as in Down Town New York City.
I finally gave in to the magnetic pull from downtown New York City. I was very reluctant to return to the area where I spent the best days of my life – professional glory days. There was nothing but good stuff going on down there in the 90’s and now everything has changed, seemingly at light speed.
My vivid memories of dashing from the NYMEX floor, between the Twin Towers, straight up the middle of Zuccotti park, to our commodity trading desk at 85 Broad Street with pockets full of trade tickets from open out cry orders I had executed on the exchange that day came right back. I had spent 2 years of my career on the 107th floor of the North Tower. My father had spent nearly 2 decades on the 86th floor of the South Tower with Dean Witter Reynolds and now I slithered between them on my way back to my post with Goldman Sachs at the top of the commodity trading pack. No matter how my day went I was never able to pass between the two towers without looking up between them and thanking God out loud.
“Pretty awesome…I think I made it.”
I thought it was going to be like that forever and I’ve been unable to live comfortably in a great moment without fearing it would all come crashing down at some point since. Literally.
Back then I could never resist the temptation of a $20 backgammon game on my way through the park to the office (to my former managers who may be reading – that’s why I was late.) Unfortunately the outcome was always lopsided. Mr. Ivy League here would drop another $20 to a hustler with broken teeth, a ripped sweater, and presumably no education but it was my little karma gift to the Gods of Risk and a fun encounter with a complete stranger. Appearance aside, my opponents weren’t afraid of competition; they were skilled at surfing probability and quantifying outcomes. I don’t feel like the same competitive logical thinking that went on between us is going on amongst the Occupiers of Wall Street in that park today. I think a few are playing Chinese Chess, most are playing checkers, and a large population is loafing around looking for something to do. Like get arrested for protester streed-cred.
Now in order of decreasing importance - there are no more Twin Towers, there is no more open outcry, and Zuccotti Park is a semi-peaceful activist occupation zone with a NYPD “eye in the sky” tower looking down over it. (I guess they have to keep an eye out for thieves down there. Dishonest folks, beggars, and thieves will always be tempted to re-distribute a few of someone elses personal items into their own possession.)
As for the Towers - there is a spectacular memorial built just perfectly for “never forgetting” in the footprint of where the pillars once stood. It was reassuring to see that this parcel of hallowed ground is probably more secure than Fort Knox. Unfortunately that old gaze into the sky is alarmingly empty without being book ended by glass, steel, and the gleaming pillars of global commerce that could block out the sun for hours. The designer forces your focus into the hole to reflect on that absence. The foliage and the precision landscape make it quite a jarring experience to stand in what was respectfully referred to as “Ground Zero” for so long. It is worth mentioning only as this symbol of the Old America confronts a growing population looking for a New America a few hundred yards to the east.
Through the years trading has been moved off exchange floors and onto computer chips where high frequency traders have been empowered to steal in broad daylight. To me that is a direct result of investment bank hubris and exactly what some of the proper protesters are focused on. Bulletproof local trading operations had their future revenue streams rolled up into an IPO. Their livelihoods were transformed to memories as fast as investment bankers could collect on that revenue stream and HFT’s could write code to trade a zillion times per second. That was the beginning of a new chapter. Then they moved on to raiding the public funds to “prevent the global financial system from collapsing” and we had the great wealth transfer.
Nassim Taleb said yesterday - and a few of the Chinese Chess playing protesters are acutely aware of today – there is a widely visible trend of rewarding bank failure and punishing everyone else for it. When he hangs the Hammurabi Principle on that notion – you should reach for Wikipedia with eyes wide open.
This whole ploy is currently manifesting itself in a phenomenon called “Screwflation.” Read Doug Kass’s definition and don’t come back to me saying “But headline inflation isn’t…” I will slam the phone down. The same Government pulling off this ponzi is the one reporting the right side of this constantly evolving inflation equation.
CPI = NOTHING THAT YOU USE ON A DAILY BASIS WHOSE PRICE CAN APPRECIATE DUE TO CURRENCY DEVALUATION
“Screwflation, like its first cousin stagflation, is an expression of a period of slow and uneven economic growth, but, its potential inflationary consequences have an outsized impact on a specific group. The emergence of screwflation hurts just the group that you want to protect — namely, the middle class, a segment of the population that has already spent a decade experiencing an erosion in disposable income and a painful period (at least over the past several years) of lower stock and home prices. Importantly, quantitative easing is designed to lower real interest rates and, at the same time, raise inflation. A lower interest rate policy hurts the savings classes — both the middle class and the elderly. And inflation in the costs of food, energy and everything else consumed (without a concomitant increase in salaries) will screw the average American who doesn’t benefit from QE 2.”
That’s where the ire of the protesters should be focused. That will be the straw that finally breaks their back should they be around for the next few rounds of QE & Policy Tool mania. That is where they can actually make a difference if they are smart about it. Central Planning and intervention in free markets should be at the top of their list.
The problem is that the atmosphere is undeniably similar to the parking lot at Giant’s Stadium before a Dead Show, only the agenda is far more pervasive and the message is far more splintered. Imagine if the Dead show parking lot were littered with metal heads, thrash rockers, rap artists, classical pianists and good ol’ country boys strumming a banjo with a shotgun rack on their Ford Cherokee – amongst the twirlers and miracle seekers. Knowing what band to march to would be difficult and I feel like that is what has been created with Occupy Wall Street.
There are candle lit yoga sessions led by 20-year-old kabala Nubians, there are “HUNGER STRIKES for OWS” in full swing (although the guy looked well fed to me, it must be early), and there are peaceniks from the 60’s with John Lennon’s eyeglasses on.
The problem is that the atmosphere is undeniably similar to the parking lot at Giant’s Stadium before a Dead Show, only the agenda is far more pervasive and the message is far more splintered. Imagine if the Dead show parking lot were littered with metal heads, thrash rockers, rap artists, classical pianists and good ol’ country boys strumming a banjo with a shotgun rack on their Ford Cherokee – amongst the twirlers and miracle seekers. Knowing what band to march to would be difficult and I feel like that is what has been created with Occupy Wall Street.
There are candle lit yoga sessions led by 20-year-old kabala Nubians, there are “HUNGER STRIKES for OWS” in full swing (although the guy looked well fed to me, it must be early), and there are peaceniks from the 60’s with John Lennon’s eyeglasses on.
There is a large faction of Thomas Sowell carriers of cliché signage like “We are the 99%” and “Stop Wall Street Greed” and then there are those that just want to “Legalize it.” Dressed in Cloudveil climbing gear, they have clearly been procuring their stash with the help of Daddy’s Ivy League Bailout Fund up to this point.
Is this the counter weight to the Tea Party? I don’t think that’s a good idea.
A Quinnipiac University survey showed that 67% of NYC voters agree with the protesters’ views, and 23% don’t. Support came from 80% of the registered Democrats, 58% of the independents, and 25% of Republicans. I found those numbers to be high for a group whose list of demands reaches from ending the war in Afghanistan to asking for $1T in government money for ecological engineering.
I’d love to look that 67% of NYC voters in the eye and ask them what they are in support of because OWS is starting to show its darker colors. Douglas Schoen did a little fact checking and was kind enough to share what he found in the WSJ yesterday. The colors matched those of the Weather Underground more than anyone would care to admit. In fact, the T-shirt silk screen printers downtown hijacked the Weather Underground fist, threw a 99% across the thumb, and are exceedingly uncomfortable entertaining questions about the relationship between the two populist movements.
“Nice graphics, hey where’d you find that cool fist? Looks familiar.”
I am awkwardly ignored.
Take note that first of all, these OWS cats are no rookies. 52% have participated in political movements before. I’d imagine that drives a spike between the similarities of the 67% that agree with OWS and “Broadway Joe” right there. I can’t picture half of NYC having participated in a “political movement” before. We’ve been living pretty high on the hog here since the Bronx was burning and they marched on the New York Stock Exchange in 1979.
Schoen found OWS “comprises an unrepresentative segment of the electorate that believes in radical redistribution of wealth, civil disobedience and, in some instances, violence.” 98% of them would be supportive of civil disobedience to achieve their goals and one third of them support violence to advance their hazy multi-pronged agenda.
Does this sound like recent graduates from UPENN that are upset they can’t get hired? Are 98% of the 67% that agree with OWS policies also prepared for civil disobedience? I don’t think there is a chance. Are anywhere near a third of the 67% going to resort to violence? Less of a chance. So where’s the correlation? It’s up for grabs and radicals recognize a jump ball.
New Yorker magazine apparently tested the knowledge of the financial system across OWS protesters and found similar results to what I learned last night. While they may not be able to grasp the framework or how the equation ties out, they are able to see the injustice. Let’s just hope they choose voting leaders out of power and it is starting to sounds like that is an increasing possibility.
A recent Gallup Poll showed that Americans are more than twice as likely to blame the federal government in Washington (64%) for the economic problems facing the United States as they are the financial institutions on Wall Street (30%.) That offers a glimmer of hope for the movements focus, and a tremendous fear for the seated government. Those are the levers we have to pull on while they fiddle.
Why? Because of some scenes you will see in Chicago. It’s unnatural and blatantly anti-American to hear chants of “We are the 99%” over chants of “We are the Communist Party!”
The OWS hijack is on in full force. You have to wonder if the left is wondering who they are getting in bed with. Al Sharpton has weighed in, admittedly on the light and highly groomed side. The usual group of stooges shows up early and often (Simmons, Moore, Sarandon, Robbins, Baldwin). Last night I saw Jessie Jackson representing his constituents in full force. Today he is asking President Obama to suspend the constitution and declare a jobs emergency.
The inmates are truly trying to take over the asylum.
My point is that everyone is getting a little bit confused right now and few know whose side they are really on, never mind who is on theirs. I include myself in that “wildly aware yet carefully confused” group. The best possible outcome is the awareness being created. We still face the problem of a solution.
This is around the time I start daydreaming about standing at the base of the Twin Towers. It was so much easier to look up and conjure the incredibly amazing future we were supposed to have.
Please pay close attention to OWS and try to promote its merits. The next time we royally screw up our economy may be the last chance we get for a while.
